A friend and I have the last days discussed ideas and
analysis of Syria's future, the day Assad's regime is no longer able to keep
the country in its grip. My friend was born and raised in Aleppo, but he lives
abroad. Recently he sat down and studied the map of Syria. He wanted to see in
which parts of the country the army is heavily engaged. It is mostly in the
cities of Homs, Hama, Houla, Jisr el Shughoor, and Rastin (in the West). Not so
much in other strong Sunni strongholds like Aleppo, Deir-Zor or Dara'a, where
the uprising began in March 2011.
Is there a reason behind this? Of course we can't know
for sure, but a strategy may be that the regime wants to achieve an cleansing
of Sunnis in some areas west of the river Al-Assi (Orontes in Latin) in order
to create facts on the ground. Sunni Arabs will then be terrorized and forced
to flee. When the regime eventually realizes that the battle for all of Syria
is lost, the Alawites will withdraw and form their own state with one Christian
group. Its boundaries would then be the river Assi's western bank to the East,
the Mediterranean Sea to the west, Lebanon to the south and Turkey to the
north.
The Christians in question are called Melkites, those who
once joined the Byzantine king of Constantinople. In the Middle East the Greek
Orthodox Melkites are therfore called Roum Orthodox and Catholic Melkites are
Roum Catholic. The word Roum comes from the Eastern Roman Empire and the
designation Melkites is now used mainly for Greek Catholics. They live mainly
in the area of Wadi Al-Nasara (The Christian valley) in the coastal region and
would represent at least one third of the population in the new Alawite State.
The Russian fleet in the port city of Tartus would offer protection to Melkites
and Alawites. In return, the Russians, who are Orthodox, would have free access
to the important Mediterranean port of Tartus.
The Alawite minority tried to form an independent state
in the 1940s, when the French left Syria, but did not succeed. A few decades
later, they took power by a military coup and have ruled the country with an
iron fist ever since. During all these years, Alawites had the support of many
Christian minorities, but some Christian groups like Melkites have allied with
the regime and can thus be included in a future Alawite state. The majority of
Melkites are members of the Baath party or Qawmi Suri (Pansyrian Nationalist
Party). Qawmi Suri is now divided into two factions. One of them is a close
associate of Assad's regime.
This video illustrates how closely Melkites are allied
with the regime. It is from Easter celebrations in the city of Lattakia in
2010. What is remarkable is that persons shoot in the air with automatic rifles
and other arms outside the church for several minutes. This comes at a time and
in a country where no one may carry even a pocket knife -- unless one is a
member of the ruling Baath Party.
So it is only some Christian groups that may benefit from
their support for the regime, while others may draw a blank. Church leaders,
such as the Syriac Orthodox Patriarch Zakka Iwas, support a fragile regime. The
same applies to the Assyrian Church of the East and other churches. Their
supporters may be left to their fate the day the regime falls. They are likely
to be considered as traitors in the eyes of Sunnis.
What about the Assyrian Democratic Organization, ADO,
which has sided with the opposition right from the start? ADO and its followers
took a stand against the church leadership, and allied themselves with the
Muslim majority of the Syrian population, seeking freedom. After all, Assyrians
are just like Sunnis and other groups deprived of their political rights in
Syria.
Can the Assyrians -- the indigenous people of Al-Jazira
and northern Iraq -- by virtue of ADO's position assert their rights in what is
left of Syria when the Alawites break away? It remains to be seen. In the
province of Al-Jazira in northeastern Syria, there are also the Kurds, with
strong claims to connect the area to a possible Kurdish state in northern Iraq.
Kurdish aspirations may collide with Assyrian aspirations, as in Iraq, if the
Kurds in Syria and Iraq are not predisposed to peaceful coexistence with
Assyrians.
According to political scientist Ilan DeBasso, from
Sweden, If we compare what happened to Assyrians in Iraq, it is not likely the
Assyrians in Syria would flee the country. One important difference is that the
Assyrians in Syria have been politically active longer than their brethren in
Iraq, says DeBasso.
Let's hope he's right and that the mass exodus of
Assyrians from Al-Jazira will not be a result of the ongoing freedom struggle
in Syria. At this point Assyrian church leaders bear a heavy responsibility;
they ally themselves with Assad's regime without a strategy for the future. It
is different with the Melkite patriarch's support for the regime; they are
likely to greatly benefit from their alliance with the Alawite minority in
Syria.
By Augin Kurt Haninke
Augin Kurt Haninke is an Assyrian journalist in Sweden.
He is the editor in chief of Assyria TV.
© 2012, Assyrian International News Agency. All Rights Reserved
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