"It is very likely for the prime minister to go to
Armenia, lay a wreath at the so-called Armenian genocide memorial and apologize
to Armenians." This earth-shattering prediction is not based on
information or reports. It's the accusation of a Turkish nationalist against
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan has done so many things to upset
us, this nationalist is saying, don’t be surprised if he apologizes to the
Armenians.
(people take part in a commemoration ceremony to
mark the anniversary of the 1915 mass killings of armenians in the ottoman
empire at the armenian genocide memorial in yerevan, armenia, april 24, 2011. )
Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/11/erdogan-visit-genocide-memorial.html?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=8651#ixzz2mL93dAYr
Author Orhan Kemal CengizPosted December 1, 2013
True. Erdogan’s trip to Diyarbakir, his use of the word
"Kurdistan" and admitting openly that his government is negotiating
with Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan, are all breaking
important taboos for Turkey. Can Erdogan break a similar taboo on the issue of
the Armenian genocide?
What the non-Muslims have suffered in Turkey has rarely
been on the prime minister's agenda. He hasn’t repeated his 2009 remarks that
surprised everyone: "Those with different ethnic identities were expelled
from our country. This, in fact, was the consequence of a fascist
approach." No doubt that remark was alluding to the 1915 tragedy and other
unfortunate events in Turkey’s history.
Erdogan now frequently describes Turkey as a mosaic made
up of diverse ethnic identities. We often hear him mention Arabs, Kurds, Turks,
Circassians and the Laz, but when describing this mosaic Erdogan never mentions
Turkey’s long-standing non-Muslims such as Armenians, Greeks, Jews and Syriacs.
In my various articles for Al-Monitor, I have written
that the Armenian genocide is no longer a taboo subject in Turkey, that new
books on the subject are coming out daily and that there is a free, tolerant
media environment for the subject. Civil society now remembers the victims of
the Armenian genocide in observances on April 24. As the 100-year anniversary
of the genocide approaches, civil society is debating what to do in 2015 and is
preparing action plans to explain the genocide.
All these observances and publications indicate that the
approach of the Turkish government to the issue has somewhat changed.
Otherwise, the police would not have protected activists on April 24 from
protesting extremist, nationalist groups.
But the freedom the government allows to civil society
and intellectuals to debate and observe the genocide doesn’t mean a change to
Turkey's official position on 1915. Reports leaked to the media about the
preparations for 2015 by the government indicate that former official policies
are going to prevail.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, in a visit to
Switzerland at the end of October, conveyed to Swiss authorities Turkey’s
sensitivity about a statue Armenians want to erect in Geneva. From these
"sensitivities," we can conclude that there hasn't been an iota of
change in Turkey’s official position.
From the leaked reports, we also understand that
Davutoglu asked Switzerland to mediate between Turkey and Armenia. According to
Foreign Ministry sources, if Armenia promises to withdraw from five of seven
Azeri plots it is holding in Karabakh region, Turkey would be ready to open the
Armenian border.
The recent dialogue between the foreign minister and
members of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee suggests that there are
actually preparations to open the border. When an MP from Igdir at the Armenian
border said he was aware of some work at the closed border crossing, Davutoglu
said: "We have such work going on. If we can persuade Azerbaijan, we can
make a surprise. We are working on the border crossing."
Other aspects of Turkey’s preparations for 2015 can be
detected from remarks of the government spokesman Bulent Arinc: "2015 is
the 100th year of both the Dardanelles and the claims of Armenian genocide. We
are working seriously. There is work on symposiums, conferences, panels,
publications and documentaries. But we are also engaged in very special public
diplomacy activities that could affect the entire world."
We also know that leading members of the government and
opposition have met in the parliament to discuss Turkey’s 2015 strategy. Sadly,
all these strategies don’t appear to be anything else but mere repetition of
Turkey’s routine approaches.
The Turkish Historical Society is also preparing for
2015. Mehmet Metin Hulagu, president of the society, said it is working on a
complete works of Turkey-Armenian relations in preparation for 2015.
When we put all these preparations and views of
government officials together, we can predict that Turkey’s defensive attitude
based on denials is not going to change in 2015. Though the Foreign Ministry is
striving to improve Turkey’s image related to the Armenian issue with gestures
such as opening the border, it also seems determined to combat the Armenians’
campaign for 2015.
In short, if Erdogan doesn’t turn the world upside down
with a last-minute surprise, we are likely to see in 2015 a more refined and
sophisticated version of Turkey’s denial policy of the past century.
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