Turkey - Armenia - Azerbaijan relationship triangle can
be described as many things- neighbors, long time enemies, siblings, but there
is one thing they certainly cannot be called and that is partners. Armenia is
at war with Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan threatens Turkey at every remote possibility
of dialogue between Turkey and Armenia, Armenia considers Turkey a friend of
Azerbaijan therefore an enemy to Armenia and so on and so forth. It is a
complicated relationship at best, an unresolved one at worst. Every little and
promising breakthrough on the horizon gets lost and sucked into the vicious
disagreement between the three states and its leaders.
The roots of friendship vs. the roots of conflict
When it comes to Turkey, in Azerbaijan, it has always
been considered a brother country. Both of the countries share the same
religion and similar languages, Azerbaijani people enjoy Turkish music and its
TV series. Not surprisingly the two always give full 12 points during annual
Eurovision contests. Ankara was the first capital to recognize Azerbaijan’s
independence.
It was the end of the 80s when Azerbaijan and Armenia
engaged in a conflict that expanded over the span of two decades and counting.
Though, the bitter conflict ended with a ceasefire signed in 1994 between
Armenia and Azerbaijan, the war never really did end. To this day shootings
continue on the front lines, reports of soldiers wounded, killed, taken hostage
in combat make it to the news headlines, ceasefire violations are a popular
topic of discussion in local media. There is no sign of an actual peaceful
agreement that would sooth the wounds of the two sides.
Turkey closed its borders (sealing Dogu Kapi/Akhourian
and Igdir border gates) and halted direct land communications with Armenia in
1993 as a sign of solidarity in view of the escalating conflict between Armenia
and Azerbaijani but more precisely when Armenia occupied Kelbajar, one of the
seven adjacent territories to the Karabakh region. The relations between Turkey
and Armenia have grown sour with only few attempts for change, which too were
futile mostly as a result of Azerbaijan’s intervention. Today, there are
flights between the two countries but relations overall remain bitter.
Commercial contact includes mostly “suitcase trade” with goods transported to
Armenia via Georgia.
Turkey and Armenia growing further apart from each other
was evident during the past few annual commemoration events dedicated to
Khojaly tragedy. With the approach of the 100th anniversary of the 1915 events
building of such tension in the relations is no doubt casting a greater shadow
on any possibility of improvement in the relations between Turkey and Armenia.
While Turkey is being the supportive “brother” it is missing the bigger
picture- it is giving in to the “brotherly pressure”. Not only Turkey is letting
one country influence its foreign policy but also this attitude sets the tone
for more of such “brotherly intervention” to come. Looking at the current
status quo, it is no doubt, Azerbaijan will continue to press Turkey’s buttons
whenever Turkey and Armenia get even remotely close and push the two further
apart.
From “football diplomacy” to “no gas diplomacy”
In February of 2009, following the Munich Security
Conference the trio came up with a partial agreement on the Nagorno Karabakh
conflict. It was a joint effort- the three foreign ministers talked it all out
and came up with a tentative plan that consisted of four steps: Armenia was to
return some of the towns surrounding the Nagorno- Karabakh territory with
repatriation of Azerbaijanis who once lived on these occupied territories
according to a specific time frame; the Nagorno- Karabakh enclave was to be
handed to a provisional body; Kelbajar returned to Azerbaijan once the Nagorno-
Karabkah status was determined. And lastly the railroad and highway between
Armenia and Azerbaijan was to re-open with international peace troops guarding
the border region between Armenia and the Nagorno- Karabakh.
A year earlier, there was the well known “football
diplomacy” attempt. The qualifying rounds of the World Football Cup put Turkey
and Armenia in the same group. The president of Turkey, Abdullah Gul, for the
first time traveled to Yerevan to watch the game. During his visit, Armenia’s
President Serge Sarkissian, organized a reception- the two Presidents met, the
foundations for warmer relations were laid. Or so it was thought.
Shortly after Sarkissian’s visit to Turkey for the next
Turkey- Armenia game, a protocol was signed between the two Foreign Ministers.
It was October 11, 2009, in Zurich. The re-opening of the Turkish- Armenian
border became a possibility. But President Gul’s efforts were soon disdained.
Turkey’s Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, traveled
to Azerbaijan to sooth the rising tension in the neighboring country. “Borders
remain closed until the occupation is over”, stated the Turkish Prime Minister
as he addressed the Azerbaijani parliament convincing his Azerbaijani
counterparts that no partnership between Turkey and Armenia was going to be
made possible unless there is progress made on the status of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. “All the countries in this region know that unless
the occupation of Azerbaijani territories is resolved, the desired
normalization of relations won’t be possible. If there is no progress on the
Nagorno-Karabakah problem, it is not possible to have peace in the Southern
Caucasus”. Turkey- Armenia road map was pretty much put on hold indefinitely.
There was too much to lose in the long term in Turkey’s case. As Cengiz Candar
rightly notes in his recent piece, “no Turkish politician in the right mind can
be expected to take any steps of rapprochement with Armenia at the cost of
upsetting Azerbaijan”.
And upset Azerbaijan was during that time. When in early
April, Turkey openly announced its plans to open its border with its eastern
neighbor, Azerbaijan was furious- condemnation, disappointment, and critical
statements. At some point, one of the local radio stations announced its
decision to stop broadcasting Turkish songs if the border was opened. But above
all it was the feeling of betrayal that was the most common reaction. Official
Azerbaijan claimed that the normalization of the relations between Turkey and
Armenia (especially opening of the borders) should only move in parallel with
the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, any decisions made otherwise were an
unfair reward for Armenia. The Zurich protocols reached a stalemate. Turkey’s
solidarity with its Azerbaijani brethren created political tension no doubt on
the Armenian side of the relations. Turkey clearly gave in to the pressure.
The strange power leverage
Surely it wasn’t just Turkey’s rapprochement with Armenia
that pushed Azerbaijan to reconsider the balance of regional politics and speak
up. The August 2008 war in Georgia proved yet again Russia’s grip over the
Caucasus or how it likes to see it- its playground. Further more, Russia’s
recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia sent an alarming message to
Azerbaijan vis-à-vis the Nagorno- Karabakh. But even so, looking at the Turkey-
Azerbaijan power play, there is a clear pattern of an asymmetrical inter- state
relationship. Usually it is the bigger and more powerful state, which holds
leverage over a weaker one. But when it comes to Turkey and Azerbaijan,
Azerbaijan holds greater leverage over Turkey. And most of this leverage is
Azerbaijan’s growing economic influence in Turkey. It is estimated that by the
end of 2017, SOCAR- Azebaijan’s state gas company’s total investment in Turkey
will reach 17 billion dollars. These investments also include the PETKIM
acquisition and TANAP- the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline Project, which is set to
carry Azerbaijani gas through Turkey to Europe. The pipeline is expected to
carry 16billion cubic meters (cbm) of gas annually and an estimated 24bcm once
the pipeline is fully operational.
Lingering disappointment
Despite “stabilization” in the relationship, to this day,
Azerbaijan views Turkey’s 2009 attempt at normalizing relations with Armenia as
a “mistake”. Earlier in September of this year, Azerbaijan’s chief of foreign
relations department of the Azerbaijani Presidential Apparatus Novruz Mammadov
warned Turkey of not repeating the same mistakes for the sake of revitalization
of Ankara- Yerevan relations. While failing to note what these attempts were,
Mammadov made it clear that there were such possibilities even though the
Turkish diplomatic sources refuted any of such actions.
Warning (or threatening) isn’t something new in the
relations between the two countries. During the 2009 deterioration in
relations, Azerbaijan even threatened to cut off supplies of natural gas to
Turkey. Surely resorting to threats to cut existing economic ties is something
common in the region- with a leading example of such actions being Russia. But
at the end of the day Azerbaijani leadership must understand that Turkey, while
being Azerbaijan’s “brother” nation and a strategic ally, is also an
independent country with its own foreign policy to pursue. The economic
benefits of the partnership between Turkey and Azerbaijan should not stand in
the way of Turkey pursuing its foreign policy. This is no longer the 90s. The
political settings are changing and while Turkey provided much supported when
the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan broke out it is time for Turkey to move
on and for Azerbaijan to stop meddling in the policies of another country.
Arzu Geybullayeva
Azerbaijani freelance journalist living in Istanbul,
writes, among other, for the weekly newspaper Agos.
http://repairfuture.net/index.php/en/genocide-standpoint-of-turkey/the-never-ending-tension-between-turkey-armenia-and-azerbaidjan-arzu-geybullayeva
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