While the dire situation of Iraq’s Yazidis provoked US
military intervention against the Islamic State (IS) and nonstop media
coverage, Aleppo’s Christians fear they are the war’s forgotten victims. As Syrian government forces prepare for what may be a
decisive battle against armed groups in Aleppo, Edward Dark reports that for
Aleppo’s Christians, “fear of a new kind permeates this ancient and deeply
rooted community. Genocide and ethnic cleansing are very real threats that
haunt the collective conscience of Syria’s Christians. The terrible fate that
befell their co-religionists across the border in Mosul has driven these points
home in a rather blunt and frightening way.”
Most Christians in Syria have attempted to remain neutral
in the three-year civil war, yet they find that, regardless of their political
affiliations, they remain targets:
"Not all Christians in Aleppo support the regime; in
fact, a large number of them do not, but equally significant is that you won’t
find any that support the rebels, either. The recent repeated rebel shelling of
the Syriac Catholic Church, a large and iconic building in the heart of the old
Christian community at Azizeh, is seen by many as a clear message by the
rebels, revealing their true intent toward their community.”
The plight of Syria’s Christians is a human rights crisis
of historic proportions.
The State Department’s International Religious Freedom
Report for 2013, released last month, notes: “In Syria, as in much of the
Middle East, the Christian presence is becoming a shadow of its former self.
After three years of civil war, hundreds of thousands fled the country
desperate to escape the ongoing violence perpetrated by the government and extremist
groups alike. In the city of Homs the number of Christians dwindled to as few
as 1,000 from approximately 160,000 prior to the conflict.”
Meanwhile, for many of Aleppo’s residents, electricity
has become a “luxury,” reports Mohammed al-Khatieb:
"The situation in Aleppo is complicated as the
province is divided between the regime, the rebels and the Islamic State (IS),
with each party controlling part of the electrical grid. Aleppo’s main source
of electricity used to be the thermal power plant in the eastern countryside,
which has been out of service since June 2013 due to malfunctions caused by the
battles raging around it. The plant is currently under the control of IS.
"Aleppo receives electricity through the Zorba line,
which is an alternative line coming from the central region. Both the regime
and the rebels control parts of it. Thus, any outage practiced by any party
against the other will be treated with reciprocity, i.e., an electricity outage
for all of Aleppo."
Iran brokers Iraq transition
Ali Hashem reports this week on Iran’s role in brokering
the deal that led to the appointment of Haider al-Abadi as prime
minister-designate, replacing Nouri al-Maliki.
According to Hashem, Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei decided to back Abadi after learning of Iraqi Grand Ayatollah Ali
Sistani’s rejection of Maliki staying on as prime minister.
Ali Mamouri reported earlier this month on the tension
between Maliki and Sistani prior to Abadi’s appointment.
Hashem reports that Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of the
Supreme National Security Council in Iran, appears to be taking charge of the
Iraq file:
“In Tehran, the murmurs that Shamkhani will oversee the
Iraq file have gotten louder. This is an indication that Iran is about to adopt
a new policy, given Shamkhani’s historic relations with the Gulf countries and
Iraq, his wide experience in dealing politically with regional conflicts and
his closeness to Khamenei, all without ignoring the fact that he’s an Iranian
of Arab origins.”
In an interview with Al-Monitor in April 2013, Abadi said
that the dispute between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region could lead to the
“disintegration of the country” if not handled properly. Abadi also warned that
terrorist groups in Syria were targeting Iraq, and that “it would be a shame
that we should allow al-Qaeda to regroup.”
The challenge of IS to the next Iraqi government is
complicated by a deterioration in Arab-Kurdish relations in towns bordering the
Kurdistan Region.
Wladimir van Wilgenburg reports this week from Gwer,
Iraq, which is 18 miles outside the main checkpoint leading to Erbil, the
capital of the Kurdistan Region, that the rapid advance of IS in Iraq has
frayed relations between Arab and Kurdish residents:
“Many Kurds now worry that Arabs will form sleeper cells
in Kurdish cities after the Islamic State's major attacks against Kurdish towns
in early August. Reports suggested that many displaced Sunni Arabs sympathized
with IS militants, with some sympathizers arrested by the Asayish, the Kurdish
security police.”
Arsal’s shaky settlement
Although Lebanese forces have reclaimed Arsal after
negotiating a withdrawal by Islamist militants, the settlement brokered by
Muslim clerics may offer only a temporary reprieve.
Jean Aziz writes that the "agreement was made on the
basis of two implicit considerations: The fighters have withdrawn to an unsafe
area, but are betting on being able to launch other pro-IS revolts inside
Lebanese territory or in a neighboring state, once again allowing them to
disturb Lebanon’s affairs. They make this gamble knowing that their continued
possession of 39 Lebanese soldiers gives them breathing space. For their part,
the Lebanese authorities accepted this agreement, wagering that the scales
would tip against IS in the regional battle against that group, which is taking
place from northwestern Iraq to Syria and the hillsides of Arsal.
"In addition, the Lebanese authorities themselves
trust that Hezbollah fighters will continue to advance in the hillsides east of
Arsal and besiege the fighters in their new positions. The end of summer and
the arrival of the deadly frost in the hills, some of which reach 2,500 meters
(8,202 feet) above sea level, will aid Hezbollah in their siege."
Esperance Ghanem writes that one of the causes of these
clashes is the Syrian refugee camps established in Lebanon:
"Remarkably, from a geographic viewpoint, the
largest number of refugee centers are located in areas sympathetic to the
Syrian opposition, among them Arsal, which formed an environment that
facilitated their movement and provided them with services and protection.
According to security sources, this reality on the ground encouraged a
considerable number of Syrians to seek refuge in Lebanon when wounded in
fighting inside Syria. It also engendered an amenable environment for some to
commit crimes such as kidnapping, robbery and drug trafficking for monetary
gains, culminating in their involvement in car bombing attacks and
murder."
Netanyahu no "King Bibi"
Ben Caspit rejected Obama’s assertion in an Aug. 8
interview with Thomas Friedman of the New York Times that Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is politically strong in Israel as a result of the
Gaza war. Instead, Caspit argues “that Netanyahu is the weakest prime minister
in Israel’s history. Never before have we had a weaker premier.”
Netanyahu is facing challenges from within his own
coalition, so Caspit rules out polls showing solid support during the Gaza
conflict. The verdict will come after. Caspit does not share Obama’s analysis
of Netanyahu’s staying power.
“Will Netanyahu be unseated in the coming months?
Although this is hard to believe, it is nevertheless possible. Does he have a
significant rival right now to vie for the premiership? Probably not. But as
was explained earlier, this does not mean that he is strong. Netanyahu is a
weak, petrified and a listless leader,” writes Caspit.
Lobby series
On Aug. 17, Al-Monitor’s series on Middle Eastern
countries’ lobbying efforts will continue with the release of profiles for
Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
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